Recovered megatonnes by material — global ex-China, 2026–2035. First-degree recovery rates applied.
$bn by material at spot prices — global ex-China, 2026–2035
Wind — vintage-dependent material intensities (t/MW installed)
Material intensity per MW varies with turbine class. The fleet reaching end-of-life in 2026–2035 was installed 2000–2015 — overwhelmingly sub-3 MW machines with higher per-MW steel and lower per-MW composite than modern 5+ MW turbines.
| Vintage | Class | Steel | Cast iron | Composite | Copper | Rare earths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2005 | Sub-1.5 MW | 128 t/MW | 42 t/MW | 8 t/MW | 5.0 t/MW | 0 |
| 2005–09 | 1.5–2.5 MW | 109 t/MW | 36 t/MW | 11 t/MW | 4.0 t/MW | 10 kg/MW |
| 2010–14 | 2–3 MW | 101 t/MW | 34 t/MW | 13 t/MW | 3.5 t/MW | 30 kg/MW |
| 2015+ | 3–4.5 MW | 90 t/MW | 30 t/MW | 15 t/MW | 3.0 t/MW | 50 kg/MW |
Sources: NREL REMPD (2023), Vestas LCA (V47–V136), IRENA (2017), USGS Wind Turbine Database. Steel = tower, nacelle frame, rebar. Cast iron = bedplate, gearbox housing, hub castings. Composite = blade GRP/CRP. Rare earth (NdPr) applies to PMSG drivetrains; negligible in DFIG turbines dominant pre-2012.
Solar PV — vintage-bucketed intensity (t/MW)
Silver paste intensity has fallen roughly 8× since 2005 as cell metallisation improved from BSF through PERC to TOPCon. Silicon wafer thickness has roughly halved over the same period. Bulk materials (glass, steel, aluminium, copper, polymer) are relatively stable across vintages and held flat. Three profiles are applied by deployment year:
| Deployment vintage | Technology | Silver | Silicon | Glass | Aluminium |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2012 | BSF p-type, paste-heavy | 100 kg/MW | 4.5 t/MW | 45 t/MW | 20 t/MW |
| 2012–2019 | Multi-Si → PERC transition | 60 kg/MW | 3.8 t/MW | 45 t/MW | 20 t/MW |
| 2020+ | PERC mainstream / TOPCon | 25 kg/MW | 3.5 t/MW | 45 t/MW | 20 t/MW |
All vintages: Steel 30. Copper 4.5. Polymer 6 (EVA, backsheet). Silver intensities calibrated against Silver Institute World Silver Survey annual solar demand figures divided by IEA-PVPS annual installation data; pre-2012 value reflects the 2008–2011 scale-up period which dominates volumes in that bucket. At spot silver (~$2.4m/t), the difference between a pre-2012 and a post-2020 panel is approximately $180k per MW in silver recovery value alone. Sources: ITRPV 2024, Silver Institute World Silver Survey, IEA-PVPS, IRENA, Sander et al. 2019.
Battery storage — vintage-bucketed intensity (t/MW)
Active materials are expressed as black mass — the shredded cell output that the asset owner or decom operator sells to a hydromet refiner. Black mass is the first-degree commodity. Individual cathode components (Li, Ni, Co, graphite) are second-degree outputs extracted downstream by specialist refiners and are not modelled in this tool. Structural and electrical materials scale partly with power; active materials scale with energy content (duration × MW). Three profiles are applied by deployment year:
| Deployment vintage | Chemistry / duration | Black Mass (NMC) | Black Mass (LFP) | Steel | Copper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2018 | NMC-dominant, ~1.5hr avg | 3.5 t/MW | — | 14 t/MW | 2.7 t/MW |
| 2018–2021 | ~50/50 NMC:LFP blend, ~2hr avg | 2.0 t/MW | 2.5 t/MW | 17 t/MW | 2.8 t/MW |
| 2022+ | LFP-dominant, ~3hr avg | — | 5.5 t/MW | 19 t/MW | 2.9 t/MW |
Black mass yield: NMC ~3.5 kg/kWh at pack level (NMC622 cathode, graphite anode, and electrolyte shredded together). LFP ~5.0–5.5 kg/kWh, reflecting heavier cathode mass at lower energy density. The 2018-vintage fleet is modelled as a 44/56 NMC/LFP split by installed capacity. Sources: NREL ATB 2024, Argonne BatPaC v5, BNEF LCOES 2023, IEA GEO 2024.
Commodity prices (spot April 2026)
Steel HMS 1&2 $350/t (Argus). Cast iron scrap $245/t. Cu LME $12,700/t. Al LME $3,570/t. Zn LME $3,300/t. Ag ~$75/oz ($2.4m/t). Si MG $2,500/t. NdPr oxide $65,000/t (Fastmarkets). Black mass (NMC) $6,000/t indicative (Fastmarkets, April 2026; market suppressed vs 2022 peak, tracking lithium carbonate weakness). Black mass (LFP) $2,000/t indicative (limited liquid market; gate-fee risk when Li₂CO₃ falls below ~$13,000/t). Value chart and cumulative table apply these prices as gross indicators; realised operator recovery will differ depending on recycler contract terms, lot size, and logistics.
Recovery rates
All rates are first-degree: the fraction the asset owner or decom operator recovers as a sellable commodity — not the downstream refiner yield. Steel 95% (shredder/EAF). Cast iron 95%. Copper 85% (cable stripping + smelter; reduced from 90% to reflect varnished/bonded generator copper losses). Aluminium 92% (frame remelt). Zinc 85% (Waelz kiln). Black mass (NMC and LFP) 95% — collection efficiency from shredder output. Rare earths (NdPr) 15% — fleet-average first-degree rate for 2026. Magnet recycling specialists handle only a small fraction of retiring NdPr volume today; most end-of-life magnets are downcycled to steel scrap or stockpiled pending specialist capacity. Lab/pilot achieves 85–90%; 15% is the realistic fleet-level planning rate and will improve through the late 2020s as capacity scales. Composite 0% (no commercial pathway at scale). Glass 40% — only specialist thermal-mechanical plants recover cullet commercially; most recyclers landfill or downcycle. Updated from 90%, which reflected idealised specialist-only conditions. Silicon 5% — virtually no commodity-grade Si market at scale; contaminated wafers go to construction downcycle or landfill. Updated from 70% (wet chemistry lab-scale figure). Silver 10% — acid leaching required to separate screen-printed metallisation; mainstream recyclers do not perform this step. Range across specialist operators: 5–15%; 10% is the mid-range practical rate. Updated from 65% (second-degree hydromet recovery, not asset-owner rate). Polymer 0% (EVA/backsheet; no commercial recovery value at scale in 2026).
Scope & installation data
Global ex-China. Wind = onshore + offshore combined. Capacity reaching EOL = installed in year (Y − age threshold). Volumes are gross embedded. Concrete excluded (reused on-site or waste, not a commodity opportunity). Value chart and cumulative table show positive-value materials only for value metrics. Non-recyclable streams (composite, polymers) appear in the volume chart and mass column at zero commodity value. Installation data sources: GWEC, IRENA, IEA-PVPS, BNEF.
Important notice
This tool is provided for indicative planning purposes only. Volumes and commodity values are derived from publicly available installation data and material intensity benchmarks; they are not investment advice and do not constitute a formal commodity or recycling market forecast. Actual volumes, timing, and realisable values will vary depending on asset-specific characteristics, decommissioning rates, commodity prices, and processing pathway availability. Endenex accepts no liability for decisions made in reliance on this tool.