Indices
Endenex DCI Portfolio Analytics
Intelligence
Recycling Infrastructure Map Material Recovery Value Drivers Policy & Regulatory Tracker Wind Fleet Age Profile Secondary Material Volumes UK Wind Scrap Pipeline
Cost & Recovery Tools
Decommissioning Cost Estimator - Onshore Wind (Western Europe) BESS End-of-Life Liability Estimator Material Recovery Estimator – Wind Material Recovery – Solar PV
Methodology
DCI Methodology Conflicts Policy IOSCO
Insights
Market Commentary The Liability Curve Podcast
Bespoke Services
Transaction Advisory Reserve Adequacy Assessment EPR Liability Pricing
About Terminal Login
UK Onshore Wind · Secondary Materials Pipeline

Quantify the coming UK scrap wave

Estimate the volume and market value of recoverable materials entering scrap and recycling markets over the next decade.

Age assumption & scrap prices

Adjust turbine end-of-life age and your scrap buy prices. All outputs update in real time. Prices preset to April 2026 spot (GBP).

Turbine age at EoL 22 yrs
20 yrs25 yrs
Steel (HMS 1&2) £276/t
£50£500
Cast Iron scrap £193/t
£50£340
Copper (No.2 scrap) £6,000/t
£2k£10k
Aluminium (mixed scrap) £1,100/t
£400£1.8k
Zinc (old scrap) £1,250/t
£500£2k
Rare Earths (recovered) £20,000/t
£5k£35k
Pipeline overview — UK 2026–2035
Ferrous metals
kt steel & cast iron
Non-ferrous metals
kt copper, aluminium & zinc
Total market value
£ recoverable at your prices
Annual material volumes — UK onshore wind

Thousand tonnes by material, 2026–2035

Annual recoverable value — at your scrap prices

£ million by material, 2026–2035

Regional breakdown — where the scrap comes from
Cumulative material breakdown — 2026–2035
MaterialCategoryRelative value Total massRecoverable £Recovery
Assumptions & methodology

Wind turbine material intensities (t/MW installed) — vintage-dependent

The UK onshore fleet reaching end-of-life 2026–2035 was installed 2001–2015. Material intensity per MW varies with turbine class and generation. Sub-2 MW machines (dominant pre-2008) carry higher per-MW steel and lower composite than modern 3+ MW platforms.

Deployment vintageClassSteelCast ironCompositeCopperAluminiumZincNdPr RE
Pre-2005Sub-1.5 MW128 t/MW42 t/MW8 t/MW3.5 t/MW1.5 t/MW0.8 t/MW
2005–20091.5–2.5 MW109 t/MW36 t/MW11 t/MW2.8 t/MW1.3 t/MW0.6 t/MW10 kg/MW
2010–20142–3 MW101 t/MW34 t/MW13 t/MW2.3 t/MW1.3 t/MW0.6 t/MW30 kg/MW
2015+3–4.5 MW90 t/MW30 t/MW15 t/MW2.0 t/MW1.2 t/MW0.5 t/MW50 kg/MW

Sources: NREL REMPD (2023), Vestas LCA reports, IRENA (2017), USGS Wind Turbine Database.

Recovery rates

Steel 95% (shredder/EAF). Cast iron 95%. Copper 90% (strip + smelt). Aluminium 92% (remelt). Zinc 85%. Rare earth oxides 60% (magnet recycling route). Composite GRP 0% (no commercial pathway at scale). Polymers/cables 0% in recovery value calculation.

GBP scrap prices (spot April 2026)

Defaults: Steel HMS 1&2 £276/t (Argus UK ferrous scrap index). Cast iron £193/t (UK dealer mid). Copper No.2 scrap £6,000/t (LME-referenced UK dealer). Aluminium mixed scrap £1,100/t (LME-referenced UK shredded). Old zinc scrap £1,250/t (LME-referenced European dealer). NdPr recovered from magnets £20,000/t (Fastmarkets rare earth oxide, European ex-works basis). All prices reflect UK/European scrap market rates, not LME primary-metal benchmarks. Prices are adjustable via the sliders above. Realised values depend on form, contamination, lot size and logistics.

UK regional installation data

Annual onshore wind installations split by UK nation. Scotland accounts for approximately 57% of UK onshore capacity installed 2005–2015 — the cohort entering decommissioning 2026–2035. England ~29%, Wales ~9%, Northern Ireland ~5%. Regional proportions derived from REPD (Renewable Energy Planning Database) cumulative capacity by nation. Sources: BEIS/DESNZ REPD, Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES), WindEurope country reports.

Scope & repowering assumption

UK onshore wind only. Offshore wind excluded. The core assumption is repowering: old turbines (nacelle, rotor, tower) are dismantled and removed; buried inter-turbine cables, export cables, and concrete foundations are left in place. Copper intensities therefore reflect turbine-only copper (generator windings, nacelle wiring) and exclude inter-turbine cable. Concrete foundations excluded (recycled as bulk fill, not a commodity opportunity). Volumes shown are gross embedded material; recoverable value applies recovery rates to each fraction.

Important notice

This tool is provided for indicative planning purposes only. Volumes and commodity values are derived from publicly available installation data and material intensity benchmarks. They are not investment advice and do not constitute a formal commodity or recycling market forecast. Actual volumes, timing, and realisable values will vary depending on asset-specific characteristics, decommissioning schedules, commodity prices, and processing pathway availability. Powered by Endenex decommissioning intelligence.